Mexico: An American Problem

Historically, the United States and its neighbor to the south, Mexico, have had a tenuous relationship. At times this has manifested itself as all out war and at other periods as relative peace and prosperity. In the current era of unprecedented globalization, the association between Mexico and the United States has become intrinsically intertwined. Some observers now fear that the large and powerful country of Mexico is approaching a point where its democratic government will lose any meaningful control and for all intents and purposes become a failed state. Such a condition would have far reaching detrimental effects, not only on the United States, but because of its globally pivotal role, on the world at large. A thorough assessment of the complex dynamics that exist within Mexico and the U.S. is indispensable to understanding and quelling the growing threats and tensions. Although a number of problematic elements have been identified, the two most preeminent threats to the strength of Mexican-American relations seem to be: the destabilization associated with a mass Mexican immigration to the U.S., and the illegal drug trade with its related violence and criminal organizations.


Immigration to the United States is not a new phenomenon, indeed millions of foreigners from hundreds of countries have been coming here for centuries. And quite naturally, the arrival of each new population of immigrants has upset the preexisting social order and caused tension. Like having your kid brother-in-law move in to your basement, things are not always going to be peachy keen. Nonetheless, history has shown that over generations, immigrant populations have learned to be “Americans” and integrate into mainstream culture, largely adopting the established way of life.

Mexico however seems to be the exception to the general rule of assimilation. Traditionally, the great distances and relative isolation of new arrivals from the old country simply left them with no other alternative but to adjust. Mexico’s position flanking the U.S. makes its people unique. To a large extent, Mexicans in the U.S. are not being weaned from the motherland –because mother is just “next door”.

George Friedman takes this concept a step further as he describes that, “The political border stays were it is while the cultural border moves northward.” He insightfully reflects back on history and highlights the repercussions as “a fear that the massive population movement will ultimately reverse the military outcome of the 1830s and 1840s, returning the region to Mexico culturally or even politically.” The fact that many Mexicans enter the U.S. unlawfully only adds fuel to the fire as it seems to legitimize and heighten fears that Mexican immigrants are dangerous invaders.

Arguably, such fear is the impetus for Arizona’s passage of the very divisive SB1070 bill, officially titled the “Support Our Law Enforcement and Safe Neighborhoods Act”, which seeks to impose stricter control over illegal immigration within the state. In an environment with such volatility, this type of stressor has the tendency to increase tension and distrust bilaterally. And not surprisingly, among Mexicans the bill is largely viewed as downright racist. Lamentably, the bill is a shortsighted reactionary measure that cannot really address the underlying causes of Mexican immigration which are in essence the product of substantial imbalances in wealth and power on both sides of the border.

The real issues must be taken up at a national and not a state level. Again Friedman articulates the view that:

Immigration has been treated as a subnational issue involving individuals. It is in fact a geopolitical issue between two nation-states. Over the past decades, Washington has tried to avoid turning immigration into an international matter, portraying it rather as an American law enforcement issue. In my view, it cannot be contained in that box any longer.

Unfortunately another daunting obstacle is assailing the two nations, stealing the spotlight and resources away from efforts to reduce the development gap that might otherwise bring about substantive improvements to the immigration problem; that is the drug war.

For decades a handful of powerful cartels controlled the supply and distribution of illegal drugs from Mexico to customers in the United States. Although these older cartels resorted to violent tactics at times they generally limited themselves to protecting trade routes and commodities. In recent years the Mexican government of Felipe Calderón, partially funded by the U.S., has implemented a very aggressive campaign to stamp out the influence of these cartels. This has to a large extent involved the arrests or killing of many important cartel leaders. However as Friedman explains, “The killing of senior cartel members intensifies conflict among cartels, making it even more difficult for the government to control the situation and intensifying the movement towards failure.” Reminiscent of the seemingly invincible Hydra of Greek mythology, cartels don’t simply disband in the absence of leadership; instead remaining cartel members restructure and vie for power and territory. To aid them in doing this they often enlist the aid of outside street gangs or private security forces which seemingly always translates into more violent competition.

In fact bloodshed has been so intense of late that if current trends continue about 75,000 people will be dead by the end of the Calderón administration in 2012. Those participating in the drug trade are willing to put lives on the line because of the huge amount of money involved (estimated to be as high as $40 billion annually). The difficulty in eliminating the drug trade is primarily rooted in this money and the power that it buys in the form of corrupt officials and armed forces.

Friedman explains that these criminals have so much money and control that “faced with the carrot of bribes and the stick of death, even the most incorruptible [government official] is going to be cautious in executing operations against the cartels.” Truly, the brutal and targeted nature of the violence is astounding. For example, one day last year in Ciudad Juarez, a prison guard and policeman were gunned down. On their bodies was a sign that said another officer would be killed every two days until the city’s chief of police resigned. He quit later that day.

With the progressive surrendering of government control, many fear that ultimately the seat of power will effectively be relinquished to the drug cartels. Friedman describes that under such a system “The state no longer can carry out its primary function of imposing peace, and it becomes helpless, or itself a direct perpetrator of crime.” This is what is meant by the term, “failed state”. If Mexico were to fail, little would stand in the way of further cartel expansion northward into the United States, ever closer to the consumer. This expansion would bring with it the accompanying corruptive powers of large amounts of money and the terrifying violence that now plagues Mexico.

Luckily, the United States and Mexico are not yet at the point of a total melt down. Most authorities remain optimistic that with assistance from the U.S., Mexico can implement a strategy that will strengthen its government against disloyalty and intimidation and eliminate the drug trade or at least neutralize the threat it poses. Some believe that this will only be possible through the deregulation of marijuana (like with the repeal of Prohibition in the U.S.) while others contend that a forceful hard line approach is the best option.

Whatever is done to resolve the threats and tensions facing the U.S. and Mexico must be done with great foresight and level-headedness. The problems that we now confront have been developing for decades and it may very well take some time to set things right. Hopefully, our respective leaders take these dangers seriously and work together to serve the greater good.

For More Information Check Out These Sources:
George Friedman:
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/mexico_road_failed_state, http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2010/08/03/us_vs_mexico_in_borderlands_99096.html

David Luhnow & José De Cordoba:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123518102536038463.html

Jorge G. Castañeda:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/05/16/AR2010051602951.html?wprss=rss_opinions

Eduardo Guerrero Gutierrez:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-11174174